Monday, May 2, 2016

The Very Last Blog Post Of Advance Indiana Blogger: Gary Welsh Blows His Brains Out!

The sins that cry to Heaven for vengeance
Q. 925. HOW many such sins are there?
A. Four.
Q. 926. What is the first of them?
A. Wilful murder, which is a voluntary and unjust taking away another’s life.
Q. 927. How show you the depravity of this sin?
A. Out of Gen. iv. 10. Where it is said to Cain “What hast thou done? the voice of the blood of thy brother crieth to me from the earth: now, therefore shalt thou be cursed upon the earth.” And Matt. xxvi 52, “All that take the sword, shall perish with the sword.”

Police are investigating the 'tragic suicide' of a prominent political blogger after his final column predicted an Indiana win for Donald Trump. Gary Welsh, who wrote the highly respected conservative blog Advance Indiana, was found dead in the stairwell of an apartment block in Park Avenue, Indianapolis, on Sunday, the Indy Star reports. The witness, who discovered the body shortly before 8am, told police that they had seen a gun lying next to the body. Welsh was pronounced dead at the scene by medics. Welsh, who was a practicing attorney, was renowned for his no-nonsense posts which took aim at Democrats and Republicans alike. His final post, published on Friday, was discussing the latest poll results in Republican presidential race. In an article which now seems tragically ominous, Welsh made his prediction of which candidate would win between Donald Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich Daily Mail Read More>>>>

The Last Blog Post

Friday, April 29, 2016

Every poll taken in Indiana shows Donald Trump leading his Republican primary opponents in next week's primary election. The latest poll released by ARG gives Trump a 9-point advantage over his nearest competitor, Ted Cruz. Trump leads Cruz by a 41-32% margin. Kasich is far behind with just 21% of the vote. Trump is leading in almost every category, including likely Republican voters, young and older voters, male and even female voters.

A second poll released by a Republican pollster, Clout Research, shows the race much closer. Trump is ahead by only two percentage points in that poll over Cruz, 37-35%. Kasich trails with only 16% of the vote.

If I'm not around to see the vote results, my prediction is that Trump wins Indiana with just shy of 50% of the vote, but he will carry every single congressional district and sweep the delegate race--assuming the party-chosen delegates honor their rules-bound commitment to support the winner on the first ballot. Most of those delegates favored John Kasich at the time they were chosen. Only two of the delegates named by state party officials publicly declared their support for Trump, although some have indicated they would feel obligated to support the voters' wishes.

Cruz has made Indiana his last stand. He threw a hail mary pass earlier in the week by naming Carly Fiorina as his running mate in hopes of attracting female voters in next week's primary election. He snagged Gov. Pence's endorsement today, although his favorability numbers aren't so hot right now and that endorsement is likely to further infuriate already alienated Republican and independent voters. Cruz has also taken up residence in the state this past week, criss-crossing the state with multiple appearances. His crowds have been small compared to Trump's rallies.

Trump has had fewer appearances in Indiana, but his rallies have drawn far larger and more enthusiastic crowds. He returns this weekend for rallies in Fort Wayne on Sunday at Memorial Coliseum, and he will close out his campaigning in Indiana at the Century Center in South Bend Monday evening. Click here for information on those events.

Early voting, which started off very slow, has surged and appears to be well above average for presidential primary elections in Indiana in many counties now. Those new voters will favor Trump, not Cruz. The Democratic primary will draw far fewer voters. Clinton should handily defeat Bernie Sanders by a 58-42% margin, helped by those who might have otherwise voted in the Democratic primary choosing to take a Republican ballot instead.

UPDATE: There's a real outlier poll added to the mix late today. IPFW/Downs Center in Fort Wayne released a poll showing Cruz with a double-digit lead of 45 to 29% over Trump. Adding that lopsided poll into the mix makes the RealClearPolitics average show a very tight race, with Trump up about 2%, 37.5-35.2%.

This ain't no Ninive!

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